The contraction of real gross domestic product (GDP) in January–February 2026 amounted to 1.2%, according to estimates by the Ministry of Economy, Environment, and Agriculture, Minister Oleksiy Sobolev reported.
"Economic activity at the beginning of 2026 remained subdued due to the effects of intensified enemy attacks and unusually cold weather, which caused forced production pauses at some enterprises due to energy restrictions… Among the most affected sectors were electricity supply, extractive industries, metallurgy, and transport," he said during the “Question Hour” in the Verkhovna Rada on Friday.
He added that some factors indicate the temporary nature of these results.
According to him, several sectors are showing high growth: domestic trade increased by 13% in January, construction by 3%, and the manufacturing industry also grew. In addition, according to the National Bank of Ukraine, business expectations in February had already begun to improve gradually, reaching 45.9 in February compared to 41 in January.
"And finally, it is worth emphasizing that in January–February, goods exports also continued to grow: up 1.7% in January and another 3.6% in February. Therefore, we expect activity and positive dynamics to resume with warming weather and improved energy supply, as indicated by better business sentiment," the minister added.
He also noted that the ministry currently identifies four main business challenges: the consequences of military actions, the lack of stable electricity supply and high energy prices, shortages of personnel and skilled workers, and disruptions in supply chains and economic links.
