Experts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in their March supply and demand report, slightly adjusted the global wheat balance for the 2025/2026 marketing year (MY), but for Ukraine they increased the production forecast and lowered the export estimate, according to the Electronic Grain Exchange.
Compared to February estimates, Ukraine’s wheat production forecast for 2025/2026 MY was raised by 1 million tons to 24 million tons (compared to 23.4 million tons in 2024/2025 MY).
At the same time, Ukraine’s export forecast was reduced by 0.5 million tons to 13.5 million tons due to slow shipment rates (compared to 15.75 million tons in 2024/2025 MY).
Ukraine’s ending wheat stocks estimate was increased by 1.5 million tons to 3.13 million tons (previous MY: 0.93 million tons).
Globally, wheat production is projected to increase by 0.32 million tons to 842.12 million tons, global wheat consumption by 0.74 million tons to a new record of 824.8 million tons due to higher feed wheat use in the EU (+1 million tons). Global wheat exports are forecast to rise by 0.2 million tons to 222.16 million tons.
The March USDA estimates also included oilseeds:
- Ukraine’s sunflower production forecast for 2025/2026 MY increased by 0.5 million tons to 11 million tons (previous MY: 13 million tons).
- Soy production was lowered by 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million tons (previous MY: 7 million tons). Soy exports were reduced from 2.7 million tons to 2.3 million tons due to the smaller harvest.
- Rapeseed export forecasts were lowered from 2.65 million tons to 2.45 million tons in line with increased domestic processing.
Additionally, Ukraine’s corn production forecast improved by 1.7 million tons to 30.7 million tons (based on the latest State Statistics Service data; previous MY: 26.8 million tons). With exports unchanged, this raises the estimated ending stocks of corn in Ukraine by 1.3 million tons to 2.95 million tons.
The exchange noted that corn prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from growing competition from Argentine grain and falling demand from Middle Eastern countries, caused by the conflict with Iran (as part of Ukrainian corn was shipped to Iran via Turkey).
