Russian energy giant Gazprom showed a formal improvement in financial results in the first quarter of 2026, but the real situation points to a deepening of systemic problems.
The company reported 147.5 billion rubles in net profit compared to a loss of 18.1 billion rubles a year earlier. However, this growth is described as “paper-based” and not linked to improvements in operational performance.
The key factor was a sharp reduction in so-called other expenses — from 626.8 billion rubles in Q1 2025 to 177.4 billion rubles in 2026. This category includes currency losses and revaluation of financial assets, making the financial result dependent on accounting adjustments rather than real business growth.
At the same time, core indicators remain stagnant. Revenue changed only slightly — 1.79 trillion rubles compared to 1.80 trillion a year earlier — while the cost of sales fell only to 1.11 trillion rubles from 1.16 trillion. This indicates a lack of demand growth and efficiency gains.
An additional sign of weakness is limited export capacity. Although gas supplies to the EU via the “Turkish Stream” pipeline increased somewhat (to 4.98 billion cubic meters), overall dependence on the European market continues to decline under the pressure of sanctions and regulatory restrictions.
Part of the financial improvement is effectively driven by the domestic market, meaning Russian consumers. Gazprom’s results began to improve after a sharp increase in gas tariffs in Russia: in 2025 they rose by an average of 14.85%, the highest level since 2014. According to the macroeconomic forecast of Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development, tariffs will be further indexed by another 27.9% in 2026–2028, effectively at the level of total utility payments.
The situation may worsen significantly in the near future. In June 2026, the EU will introduce a ban on imports of Russian pipeline gas under short-term contracts, and from 2027 similar restrictions will apply to long-term agreements. This means further reduction of foreign currency revenues for Russia.
