Cuba could end up being a hostage to Trump’s failure in the Gulf, while Ukraine will become, at least temporarily, one—but by no means the main—beneficiary. Trump needs a quick result to distract attention from the situation in the Middle East, where he is becoming increasingly mired.
Let’s set aside the “lucky tariff” scenario, in which, after a whole series of political assassinations in Tehran, a leader comes to power who fears American and Israeli missiles more than his own intelligence services, and simply “sells out” Iran by agreeing to a ceasefire on terms acceptable to Trump. There will be complications, of course, but this time Trump will pull his boots out of that quagmire.
But if he doesn’t, one adventure will have to be extinguished by another—with equally unpredictable consequences. And Cuba undoubtedly looks like “target number one” in a cover operation, where what’s being covered up is not just anything, but a hole in the pants created because someone was striding too widely.
Overall, if our future is a world without rules, then God—who apparently has a sense of humor—has decided, at least at first, to present us with its caricatured version.
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