Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat in the first nine months of the 2025–2026 marketing year (July–June), which is only 55% of the projected supply to international markets, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, citing data from the State Customs Service.
“The current situation in the wheat market is unusual: after 75% of the marketing year, we have shipped just over half of our export potential. This is 25% below last year’s figures. The European Union, thanks to its own 144 million-ton harvest, has effectively covered its internal needs, forcing Ukrainian exporters to redirect shipments to African countries,” analysts noted.
Experts report that over the past four months, average monthly wheat exports have remained around 600,000 tons. If these rates continue, ending stocks could reach a record 7.0 million tons by the end of the season. This would surpass even the 2021/22 marketing year, when sea ports were completely blocked.
Ukrainian Agribusiness Club considers three potential scenarios. The first assumes consistently low export rates, which would put pressure on domestic prices and create storage capacity shortages for the new harvest in July 2026. The second scenario anticipates rising global prices due to the war in the Middle East and higher fuel costs, which could partially offset the negative impact of large stocks. The third scenario requires accelerating shipments to 2.4 million tons per month, which is difficult due to damaged port infrastructure.
“To achieve the optimistic scenario, Ukraine would need to ship around 5.4 million tons of wheat and corn combined each month. Although sea routes remain available, moderate global demand and logistical limitations make this a challenging task for the sector. Under these conditions, ending stocks could serve as a risk-hedging tool for farmers amid rising production costs,” the association forecasts.
