The economy of the unrecognized Transnistrian region, which the civilized world considers a territory occupied by Russia, is experiencing a deep crisis amid energy problems and geopolitical instability.
According to a new budget and tax concept for 2027–2029 adopted in Tiraspol, the region’s exports have fallen by almost 60%, and imports by 24.5%. The self-proclaimed authorities acknowledge that they are operating under conditions of a de facto economic emergency.
A key factor in the decline was the cessation, as of January 1, 2025, of practically free Russian gas supplies transited through Ukraine. As a result, industrial production fell by 27.3%, foreign trade by 28.5%, and real GDP declined by nearly 18%.
Despite partial recovery of production in early 2026, its level remains roughly 20% lower than in 2024. At the same time, foreign economic activity continues to decline.
The crisis is already directly affecting the population. Due to budget deficits, local authorities have been forced to delay salaries for public-sector employees and have introduced the practice of splitting payments into parts. For example, the second part of February salaries was only paid at the end of March.
The situation demonstrates the region’s extreme dependence on Russian energy resources and the limitations of its economic model under conditions of isolation and unrecognized status. Currently, the Russian economy itself faces numerous problems—sanctions pressure, rising budget expenditures, and structural imbalances—which reduces its ability to provide financial support to Transnistria.
