Ukrainian counterattacks in September resulted in the largest monthly net reduction in Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine since June 2023. According to an assessment by the Finnish OSINT project Black Bird Group, Russian forces lost around 190 sq km.
The main reason was Ukrainian operations around Lyman and towards Komar in western Donetsk region, according to Black Bird Group’s analysis.
The project assesses both operations as successful. At the same time, it says they demonstrate how fluid the front line remains in 2026, despite the slow pace of advances by both sides.
“Both Ukraine and Russia are conducting relatively slow offensive operations in an environment characterised by intensive drone use,” Black Bird Group said.
Ukrainian forces have also achieved local gains in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, and more recently in northern Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, the Russian advance towards Kramatorsk and Sloviansk has slowed. Overall, according to Black Bird Group data, Russian advances in 2026 have remained extremely limited across all sectors. Russian forces have made some gains towards Kramatorsk, while their offensives on other parts of the front have largely stalled.
However, some of the Russian territorial losses attributed by the project to September most likely occurred in previous months. In particular, Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman sector continued throughout the summer, but most evidence and public reports about the operation emerged only in the autumn. According to the project, this was partly due to coordinated efforts to conceal the scale of the operation.
Black Bird Group analysts believe Russia is moving increasingly further away from achieving its objectives. In their assessment, the prospect of Russia capturing the entire Donetsk region by 2027 is becoming increasingly unlikely.
Recent weeks have also shown that Russia has begun its winter campaign of long-range strikes. Black Bird Group believes the campaign is unlikely to result in political concessions, but could force Ukraine to divert resources away from the front.
