Will Trump move to ban intelligence sharing with Ukraine?
Kushner’s statement about the need to withdraw Ukrainian troops from Donbas, together with Trump’s claim that diesel prices in the United States are rising because of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, may be the prelude to a major confrontation that could culminate in the upcoming meeting between Trump and Zelensky.
1. We should start with the claim about oil refineries, because it is complete nonsense. Over the past month, Trump has repeatedly tried to pressure domestic producers to keep fuel prices down on the US market, but that pressure has achieved nothing. In August, Trump was already attacking ExxonMobil and Chevron, accusing them of making excessive profits from high fuel prices.
US media reported that on September 1 he held a closed-door meeting with oil industry representatives, but it produced no result. Put simply, the supposedly all-powerful Trump ended up looking foolish and was afraid to publicly confront some of the biggest financial backers of his party.
2. Kushner’s and Trump’s statements appear to be part of a new election strategy. In fact, almost everything we are likely to see over the coming weeks will be driven exclusively by electoral considerations. This is extremely important when analysing the situation: this is not about bowing to Putin, nor is it some elaborate strategic calculation. Trump’s statements, and those of people around him, will increasingly form part of an electoral tactic or strategy.
3. From the perspective of this new strategy, the main threat to us is a possible clash between Zelensky and Trump during their upcoming meeting, followed by the loss of intelligence sharing and other forms of US assistance. But unlike the situation after the Oval Office confrontation, this would be a much more difficult scenario, because Europe would have far less influence than it did a year and a half ago.
4. Here, just as after Anchorage, the key role will be played by the US media and by voter sentiment. It is critically important for us now to do everything possible to seize the initiative specifically in the American media. Trump’s future behaviour will depend heavily on them, including during negotiations not only with Zelensky but also with Xi.
5. We have only a few days to impose our own agenda. In my view, this is still possible. But it requires systematic work. It also requires the government and the opposition to combine their efforts. And most importantly, they need to put their own ambitions aside.
