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Hamas does not want to disarm. That is precisely why it agrees to the façade of a “technocratic government”; behind that façade it will continue to rule itself. As Mao Zedong said, “the rifle gives birth to power.” It is possible to stage a performance with the handing over of three rusty rockets, but real disarmament — no.
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Hamas can be disarmed only by force. The various proposed inter-Arab or international forces are, firstly, not guaranteed to actually be created, and secondly, it’s unclear what real interest and capability they would have to fight Hamas rather than just serve as a decoration like UNIFIL.
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The only party that has the real interest and capacity to disarm Hamas is the Israeli army.
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Therefore, sooner or later the points “disarm Hamas” and “the guarantees the US and other intermediaries secured from Hamas that the war will not resume” will collide at an intersection.
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And then we will see which way the Israeli government turns at that intersection.
