Putin in Sakhalin is not about Russia’s Kuril Islands. It is an attempt to appeal to China
For the first time in his 26 years in power, Putin has visited the occupied Japanese islands. And this is not merely an election move.
In the context of a pro-war election agenda, Putin’s visit to the Kuril Islands is more than logical. Putin is trying to demonstrate that he represents a third global pole and has the right to do whatever he wants. But the logic behind this trip goes far beyond the elections.
The visit to the disputed territories is, above all, an attempt to appeal to China. Ahead of Trump-Xi talks, it is extremely important for Putin to prevent any change in China’s policy toward the war in Ukraine. Provoking a dispute with Japan, China’s principal regional rival, is therefore an important move in Russian foreign policy.
This will undoubtedly become a significant issue in the U.S. information space, particularly against the backdrop of Russia’s unprecedented rapprochement with North Korea in recent years. There is little doubt that Russia will seek to amplify the controversy. It will have no real practical significance, but it is an attempt to broaden Moscow’s room for maneuver. The Japan factor, which until recently played no role in negotiations with the United States, now has a chance to enter the discussion.
Ukraine should pay particular attention to this last aspect. This is essentially the inflation of a political bubble, with virtually no prospect of any kinetic escalation. Ukraine does not need to condemn anything or formally take a stand against it. What matters is explaining at a high political level that Russia is deliberately inflating the issue. That message would be heard.
At the same time, it is important not to explicitly take Japan’s side, because doing so could undermine Ukraine’s chances for dialogue with China. This is a very delicate diplomatic game.
