Russia’s hybrid campaign against Europe’s defence industry has undergone a dangerous transformation: from arson attacks, cyberattacks and sabotage at ammunition depots, Moscow has moved towards planning the physical elimination of executives and key specialists at European defence companies supplying weapons to Ukraine, according to the Robert Lansing Institute (RLI).
One of the key episodes was the reported prevention by German security services of an assassination attempt against Stefan Thumann, founder of Donaustahl, a company that manufactures drones for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The alleged plot involved the use of a military-grade nerve agent from the Novichok family, which under international norms would constitute preparations to use a chemical weapon on the territory of a NATO member state.
The incident echoes an earlier reported plot, disrupted by US and German intelligence services, against Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, as well as the investigation into an explosion at the KNDS Ammo Italy plant in Colleferro, where investigators are reportedly examining the possibility of external interference.
RLI experts argue that the Kremlin has developed and is actively employing a three-stage model of pressure against Europe: the systematic destruction of production capacity, disruption of logistics chains, and intimidation of human capital through surveillance and targeted assassination attempts.
According to RLI, the Kremlin’s objective is not only to destroy defence industry output but also to drive up European countries’ security, insurance and auditing costs. The institute’s analysts warn that Russia is systematically testing NATO’s “grey zone” below the threshold of open military conflict.
RLI argues that unless NATO and the EU provide a firm and coordinated response to the use of terrorist methods and chemical agents, Moscow is likely to expand its list of targets to include the civilian sector, such as software developers, microelectronics manufacturers and energy companies.
