Repressions in Belarus are several years ahead of those in Russia. From them, one can guess what will happen next in Russia. In the same way, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) shows what the FSB will become in a few years.
Let me remind you how the IRGC turned into a state within a state: it was created in 1979 as a parallel army—to defend the revolution and the new regime. Initially, it was a security structure, not a corporation. But over time, the Corps became one of the country’s most influential economic actors.
During the war with Iraq, the IRGC received massive government contracts for fortifications, logistics, and army supply. The military knows best what they need. This allowed the creation of engineering units, which later became the largest commercial structures. The main tool was the IRGC construction holding.
After the war, the structures were not disbanded. This was explained by the fact that the Corps already had infrastructure, equipment, and personnel. Valuable experience should not go to waste. This marked the beginning of the economic expansion of security forces in Iran.
When foreign companies left Iran, the Corps’ structures took their place. President Ahmadinejad, himself from the IRGC, awarded state contracts to the Corps bypassing open tenders. The IRGC entered telecommunications, banking, the oil sector, the automotive industry, and media.
Moreover, after sanctions were imposed, it was the IRGC that handled bypassing them—the trusted guys. Iranian intelligence officers actively established smuggling channels. Today, the IRGC controls a number of unofficial ports and customs points through which duty-free imports flow. By various estimates, the IRGC and its different structures control up to 40% of Iran’s GDP.
Iranian security officers actively use their power to remove competitors. The FSB doesn’t even need to be taught this—courts and prosecutors are already on a short leash. Corporate raiding worked perfectly for decades. Only the scale will increase many times over.
With a high probability, after the war ends, it will be the FSB that gets the largest contracts for rebuilding the destroyed country—what we shed our blood for. But the real fun will begin after Putin dies.
If the regime holds, the FSB will start a new privatization. All Russian oligarchs who today cling to power only through proximity to Putin will be swept away en masse. Everything will be taken from them, their relatives, children, wives, and mistresses under the slogan: “Enough of drinking the people’s blood—we want a sip too.” Just as Beria’s men eliminated Yezhov’s men, they will start tearing apart the Kovalyuks, Rotenbergs, Sechins, and other Millers. You can choose which article you’ll be imprisoned under if you don’t hand everything over.
The FSB will appeal to state-imposed patriotic ideology, fully merge with the Russian Orthodox Church, and come to control all spheres of life in Russia. Welcome the “Oprichnik Day,” multiplied by AI capabilities and new technologies.
