In the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not only has a new Commander-in-Chief, Mykhailo Drapatyi, been appointed, but also a new Chief of the General Staff, Ihor Skybiuk — this represents a change of team. Both have a strong reputation among the troops, both as military professionals and as people with strong personal qualities. This is positive for morale, and for a certain period they have been given a significant level of trust within the army. How well they will justify this trust and meet expectations remains to be seen.
The problem is that a commander, even one with the talents of Napoleon, still operates with the forces and resources available to him. The appointment of a new commander will not immediately create ten new divisions. Even if the effectiveness of existing forces improves due to different approaches to their use, the main problem of the Armed Forces of Ukraine remains unchanged: a shortage of personnel, primarily infantry, caused by problems with mobilization.
The Ukrainian leadership has decided that mobilization should be handled by the military itself. This creates additional challenges, although the problems would exist regardless — they are primarily a domestic political issue rather than a military one. If Russia actually conducts a new mobilization campaign in the autumn, Ukraine’s counter-mobilization efforts will require even greater efforts and create additional difficulties. Whether there will be tougher measures against draft evaders and expanded search operations, how far mobilization efforts will go, and whether mobilization will become more effective under the new Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara remain open questions.
The disagreement between Defense Minister Fedorov and Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi was inevitable due to the structure of the system and concerned the division of responsibilities: how much the minister should focus exclusively on supply and support, and how much he should be involved in the direct management and employment of the armed forces. The focus on digitalization and automation, which is Fedorov’s flagship agenda, only intensified these tensions. Of course, everyone supports technological progress, but the key factor on the battlefield remains the human element. Drones and robots are only supporting tools and cannot become the central focus. This once again brings the discussion back to the issue of mobilization — a problem that everyone keeps passing between institutions and that no robot can solve.
