Ukraine's real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, rebounding from a 0.6% decline in the first quarter, according to the State Statistics Service.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP increased by 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, reversing the 0.7% quarter-on-quarter contraction recorded in the first three months of the year.
At the end of July, the National Bank of Ukraine raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, up from 1.3% projected in April, citing expectations of substantial external financing that is expected to support domestic defense industry production.
The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 1.0–1.6% in its June–July review, down from 1.8–2.5%. In its April World Economic Outlook, the IMF had projected Ukraine's economy to grow by 2.0%.
The Ukrainian government has also revised down its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, from the 2.4% assumption used in drafting the 2026 state budget.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's economy expanded by 1.8% in 2025, slowing from 2.9% growth in 2024 and 5.5% in 2023, following a 28.8% contraction in 2022, the first year of Russia's full-scale invasion.
Quarterly growth in 2025 stood at 0.8% in the first quarter, 0.7% in the second, 2.1% in the third, and 3.0% in the fourth.
