Lithuanian military intelligence has presented a detailed assessment of the most dangerous scenario for direct Russian aggression, identifying the immediate seizure of the Curonian Spit as a key potential objective for Moscow in an attempt to restrict access to the Baltic Sea and isolate the port of Klaipėda, according to Delfi.
Lithuanian intelligence services outlined a worst-case scenario for a hypothetical military conflict with Russia, identifying the Curonian Spit as one of the country’s most vulnerable and strategically important locations. According to military analysts, if the Kremlin decided to launch a direct attack on the Baltic states, Russian forces could attempt a rapid strike against the narrow strip of land connecting the Kaliningrad region with Lithuania’s Baltic coast.
The primary objective of such an operation would be to establish physical control over the area and its coastline, potentially allowing Russian forces to restrict access to the Klaipėda Strait and disrupt maritime logistics to Lithuania’s only ice-free seaport.
The seizure of the Curonian Spit, combined with hybrid attacks and an attempt to block the Suwałki Corridor, could be aimed at disrupting the delivery of NATO reinforcements and military equipment by both sea and land. Lithuanian intelligence notes that control over the area could also provide Russia with a strategic foothold in the Baltic Sea and increase military pressure on Klaipėda.
Amid growing security concerns, Lithuania’s military command, together with NATO structures, has been reviewing plans for the potential deployment of naval mines in coastal areas, strengthening coastal anti-ship capabilities and increasing round-the-clock border patrols to counter possible provocations or amphibious operations.
