To briefly sum up the outcome of the negotiations, they ended up matching the pragmatists’ predictions almost perfectly. Nobody sold us out. Nobody twisted Ukraine’s arm, demanding capitulation, the withdrawal of troops from Donetsk region, or anything of the sort. So the “betrayal” crowd scared everyone for nothing.
At the same time, the optimists were also wrong to expect anything. No miracle happened, nor could one have happened. They simply met, talked, and went their separate ways. The participants acknowledged that everyone wants peace. The problem is that everyone wants it on different terms. At the moment, there is no scenario that would satisfy both Ukraine and Russia. So the war continues — until the conditions change.
How might those conditions change? Let’s leave “black swan” scenarios aside; relying on them would be like planning a family budget around winning the lottery.
The Russians are having no success on the battlefield. Anywhere. The shaded areas on maps and propaganda stories about the capture of Kupiansk exist outside reality. And that is unlikely to change. Even a probable mobilisation after the elections at the end of September will not fundamentally alter the situation.
For now, what they are good at is terrorising civilians with strikes. We are responding in kind: the second wave of strikes on oil refineries quickly brought back queues at petrol stations, and things will only get worse from there. The Russian forces are ramping up drone production. We are urgently preparing a new generation of interceptors. And we are also increasing drone production — a war cannot be won through defence alone.
It appears that Putin is firmly counting on occupying the entire Donetsk region by January 1 and entering negotiations from that position. Judging by the overall picture, the chances of that happening are slim. The claim that Sviatohirsk has been captured is false; even Russian propaganda is contradicting it. Russian forces had to retreat from Lyman under pressure from the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
So Putin will probably keep trying through the end of winter, and if the economy continues to deteriorate, he will enter negotiations with whatever he has by then. In the spring. His only condition will be to save face. Propaganda will then explain it all as a great victory over the terrifying NATO.
The duration of the war now depends entirely on how long Putin continues to believe the promises of his generals. But reality will ultimately prove stronger..
