At its current rate of advance, Russia would need until 2032 to capture the remaining Ukrainian-controlled territory in Donetsk region, according to an assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The assessment challenges the Kremlin’s claims about Russian progress on the battlefield and Moscow’s reported expectation that its forces could seize the entire Donetsk region by the end of 2026.
According to ISW, Russian forces advanced across the entire frontline at an average rate of 2.91 square kilometres per day in August. In Donetsk region, which remains Russia’s priority offensive area, the rate was lower at 2.36 square kilometres per day.
At that pace, Russian forces would need until October 2, 2032, to capture the remaining 19% of Donetsk region, ISW calculated.
The institute said Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to base his position on the war and potential peace negotiations on an exaggerated assessment of Russian battlefield successes.
Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Putin presented US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with an extensive assessment of what Moscow described as significant Russian advances during their September 6 meeting. ISW said those claims do not correspond to the actual situation on the battlefield.
A source described as close to the Kremlin reportedly said before the meeting that Moscow would not agree to a peace settlement until Russian forces captured the rest of Donetsk region. The source also said Putin believes Russian forces can achieve this by the end of 2026.
ISW considers that deadline unrealistic. Russian forces have been fighting for Kostyantynivka since October 2025 and have still not captured the city. They have also not reached the other major cities of Ukraine’s defensive “Fortress Belt” — Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka.
The institute noted that Putin has set at least 15 reported deadlines for capturing Donetsk region since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, none of which Russian forces have met.
ISW argues that distorted reporting within the Russian military may be contributing to Putin’s assessment of the battlefield. Russian military bloggers have previously described a widespread practice of commanders submitting overly optimistic accounts of battlefield successes, commonly referred to as “beautiful reports.”
Senior Russian commanders also routinely exaggerate territorial gains as part of Moscow’s information campaign, according to ISW. The institute assesses that such reporting may reinforce Putin’s belief that Russia can achieve its objectives without making significant compromises in negotiations.
In reality, ISW said, Russia still faces extensive Ukrainian defensive positions, difficult terrain and limitations in its own offensive capabilities.
The institute therefore assesses that Russia will not capture the whole of Donetsk region by the end of 2026 and, based on its August rate of advance, would require roughly another six years to do so — assuming it is able to maintain that pace at all.
