The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions for potential mobilization and is preparing for possible civil unrest in Russia resulting from mobilization.
The Russian State Duma passed a bill on July 22 that allows citizens with unexpunged and active criminal records, including for crimes related to drug smuggling and organized crime, to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during formal mobilization periods.[8] Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Russian MoD Main Military-Political Directorate Head Army General Viktor Goremykin stated on July 22 that the July 22 bill will expand the number of Russians eligible for military service and facilitate Russian recruitment efforts for the war in Ukraine in 2026.
Russia’s militarized internal security force, Rosgvardia, published proposed amendments on July 21 to expand its civil defense regulations to protect Russian society from unspecified “dangers” during mobilization, martial law, and in wartime.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a bill in November 2025 that allows him to deploy reservists to combat areas without declaring mobilization, and ISW assessed at the time that the Kremlin would likely leverage this bill to conduct rolling partial reserve call-ups.
The Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to announce formal mobilization and potentially declare martial law in Russia in anticipation of civil unrest as mobilization remains highly unpopular within Russian society. Mobilization remains a very personal decision for Putin and is ultimately contingent on Putin’s personal perception of the battlefield situation and the Kremlin’s stability, and it remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future or what his mobilization announcement would look like.
