Russia is conducting a large-scale covert campaign against Europe, deliberately targeting energy, communications, and military infrastructure, according to a new report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The report emphasizes that Moscow is using sabotage, vandalism, espionage, and covert operations to weaken Western countries and undermine their support for Ukraine, as reported by IISS.
Researchers note that this strategy began to actively develop after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Although the Kremlin has not achieved its main objectives in the war, Europe has become vulnerable to its covert pressure. Experts point out that EU capitals face serious difficulties coordinating and forming a unified response to these threats.
The IISS has created the largest open database documenting suspected and confirmed Russian operations against Europe’s critical infrastructure. It details dozens of cases of sabotage, arson, explosions, and cyberattacks. Analysis shows that Russia’s strategy is decentralized, and its activity has not decreased despite NATO and EU countermeasures.
Experts highlight that the Kremlin actively exploits the so-called “gig economy,” recruiting individuals from third countries for sabotage in Europe. Recruitment occurs online, and operatives are assigned minor tasks — such as setting fire to cars or warehouses — that appear as ordinary incidents. This scheme allows Moscow to avoid direct responsibility and blur the lines between crime and military operations.
The report emphasizes that sabotage of critical infrastructure is deeply integrated into Russia’s military doctrine. Energy facilities, fuel systems, transport hubs, underwater cables, as well as military sites and companies involved in supplying weapons and equipment to Ukraine, are under attack. Europe’s vulnerability is exacerbated by aging infrastructure, insufficient investment, and reliance on private companies that are not always prepared to protect their assets.
The number of attacks has surged: from 2023 to 2024, the number nearly quadrupled. Recorded incidents include a fire at Warsaw’s largest shopping mall, arson at a munitions warehouse in the Czech Republic, railway sabotage targeting military transports, and attacks on water supply systems for military bases in Germany. Damage to underwater cables and pipelines has been recorded in the Baltic Sea.
Experts paid particular attention to logistics sabotage. In Germany, Poland, and the UK, attempts were detected to disguise explosives as parcels in DHL logistics centers. Specialists believe these were preparations for attacks on cargo planes carrying military goods and humanitarian aid.
Defense industry enterprises are also regularly targeted. In May 2024, a major fire occurred at the Diehl Group plant in Berlin, producing IRIS-T air defense systems for Ukraine. Similar attacks were recorded in Spain and Poland, where explosions and arson targeted facilities involved in military supplies. Experts link more than forty arson attacks in these two countries over the past year to Russian intelligence operations.
The report notes that Russian sabotage in Europe has so far not caused mass casualties among civilians. However, this does not mean the threat is absent. On the contrary, Moscow’s strategy aims to create an atmosphere of fear, undermine trust in government institutions, and divide societies.
According to IISS, the European response remains reactive and fragmented. NATO and the EU are taking steps to strengthen the protection of underwater infrastructure and organize joint maritime patrols, but a lack of resources and absence of a unified strategy hinder effective deterrence of Moscow.
The authors warn that Russia views sabotage operations as part of long-term preparation for a possible military confrontation with NATO. The Kremlin deliberately blurs the line between peace and war, keeping Western countries in a constant state of tension. If Europe does not move from defensive measures to more decisive actions, it risks remaining vulnerable to Russian attacks
