Investment company Concorde Capital forecasts a 1% contraction in Ukraine's GDP in 2026 and expects the economy to shrink further next year, company founder and CEO Ihor Mazepa said during the Forbes Ukraine "Private Investments" conference in Kyiv on Tuesday.
"Industrial production will fall by 3%, and inflation will be around 12%," he added, outlining the company's forecast for 2026.
The forecast takes into account the consequences of Russian attacks, including the closure of major metallurgical and agricultural companies and the destruction of warehouses.
As previously reported, the KSE Institute downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP in its October macroeconomic review, revising its 2026 outlook from 1.9% growth to a 0.3% contraction and its 2027 forecast from 2.1% growth to a 0.6% decline. The revisions reflect intensified Russian attacks on critical infrastructure and production facilities.
In early October, the World Bank forecast that Ukraine's GDP growth would slow to 1.2% in 2026, down from 1.8% in 2025, before accelerating to 1.5% in 2027. The bank had previously expected growth of 4% in 2027.
In its October World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected Ukraine's GDP growth at 1% in 2026, compared with its June forecast of 1–1.6%, while maintaining its 2027 growth forecast at 3.5%.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) downgraded its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 from 2.2% to 1.5% and its 2027 projection from 4% to 2.5%, citing Russian attacks on ports and vessels in the Black Sea.
Dragon Capital currently expects Ukraine's GDP to contract by 0.5% in 2026 and by 1% in 2027. Before the escalation of the war in July, the investment company had forecast growth of 1.5% and 0.5%, respectively.
Investment group ICU, which in June lowered its forecast for Ukraine's real GDP growth in 2026 from 1.2% to 0.8%, now expects the economy to contract by 0.6% this year and by 1.9% in 2027.
