The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its August report, raised its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat production in the 2026/27 marketing year (July–June) by 1.4 million tonnes compared with its July estimate, to 25.4 million tonnes. The forecast for feed grain production was increased by 2.31 million tonnes to 38.59 million tonnes, while the corn production forecast was raised by 1.8 million tonnes to 31.8 million tonnes.
At the same time, the forecast for Ukrainian wheat exports this marketing year was lowered by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes. The feed grain export forecast was cut by 1.21 million tonnes to 24.27 million tonnes, including a 1 million-tonne reduction in projected corn exports to 22 million tonnes.
According to USDA estimates, almost all of this difference will be reflected in higher ending stocks. The forecast for Ukraine’s wheat stocks was raised by 2.27 million tonnes to 4.8 million tonnes, feed grain stocks by 3.4 million tonnes to 7.13 million tonnes, and corn stocks by 2.8 million tonnes to 4.86 million tonnes.
“Global trade [in wheat] is lowered 0.3 million tonnes to 212.7 million as reduced exports from Russia and Ukraine are only partially offset by higher exports from Canada and Kazakhstan. Russia and Ukraine exports are lowered due to logistical disruptions caused by the escalation of the conflict between the two countries in the Azov and Black Seas,” USDA said.
Global wheat ending stocks for 2026/27 were meanwhile raised by 0.4 million tonnes to 273.3 million tonnes, as increases for Ukraine and Russia more than offset reductions for Indonesia, Australia and several other countries.
For corn, USDA raised its forecast for global exports this marketing year by 0.6 million tonnes to 210.48 million tonnes, driven by higher exports from the United States.
For Russia, USDA lowered its wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 46 million tonnes and its feed grain export forecast by 0.4 million tonnes to 7.58 million tonnes. The latter includes a 0.2 million-tonne reduction in projected corn exports, to 3.8 million tonnes.
In a quarterly report issued by USDA’s office in Kyiv in early August, the outlook for Ukrainian exports this marketing year had been downgraded much more sharply. The wheat export forecast was cut by 3.7 million tonnes to 10.8 million tonnes, while the corn export forecast was reduced by 9 million tonnes to 14 million tonnes. The forecast for barley exports, however, was raised by 0.1 million tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes.
Since July 22, vessel calls at Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been suspended amid an increase in Russian attacks on ports and ships, including missile strikes.
“A prolonged disruption of port operations is creating a large-scale financial crisis for the agricultural sector. In the 2026/27 marketing year, Ukraine needs to export around 64.4 million tonnes of agricultural products. However, due to prolonged restrictions on seaport operations, exports could fall by almost half, to around 29.6 million tonnes,” Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food said on August 7.
