By Kirill Martynov, Russian journalist, political scientist, philosopher and writer
Putin attacked Poland, etching his name in history alongside others who did the same. So far, it hasn’t escalated into a full-scale ground war, and the Russian army lacks the resources for that. According to Polish media reports, 23 Gerbera-type drones, equipped with extra fuel tanks to extend their range, appeared over the country. Some were shot down, and one crashed onto a residential building.
As Trump aptly put it: here we go.
The problem with this attack, which is hard to dismiss as accidental, is that near the end of the fourth year of the war, Putin and his inner circle convinced themselves that everything is going according to plan. Yes, establishing a puppet government in Kyiv failed, yes, the Black Sea Fleet was destroyed, yes, hundreds of thousands of Russian men were lost.
But look at the “bright” prospects: the West is weak, Trump-friendly relations are good, Putin is being invited and shaken hands with everywhere, and the Russian economy hasn’t collapsed. What seemed insane in 2022 has effectively been normalized by the natural course of human life: people are strange creatures who get used to living in a world where there is a war in Europe.
Thus, just as in 2014, Putin is riding his luck and wants to continue. His next goal is to test NATO — to see if they are willing to fight or if the organization should be dissolved. A similar chain of events unintentionally led to previous major wars: when previous great historical figures attacked Poland, they also believed it was merely a test and that the war would likely be short.
