Russia continues to face a fuel crisis: the gasoline shortage is forcing regional authorities to introduce rationing coupons, while wholesale prices have risen by 8% since early August. The ban on gasoline exports introduced by the Russian government in early August has failed to stabilize the market.
Belarus, which could partially offset the deficit, is acting cautiously. Demand for Belarusian petroleum products in Russia increased in the second half of August, but Belarusian refineries have limited capacity: their annual production amounts to only 3–4 million tons of gasoline, of which 2 million tons are consumed domestically. Meanwhile, Russia’s monthly fuel consumption reaches 3 million tons.
Belarus’s economic considerations also restrict supplies to Russia. It is more profitable for Minsk to export gasoline to international markets — China, India, and Africa — where prices range from $1,300 to $1,900 per ton. In Russia, however, offers are below $1,000 per ton. Even during the previous fuel crisis in March 2024, Minsk supplied Russia with only 3,000 tons of gasoline, which accounted for just 0.1% of the monthly demand.
