Here are the consequences of the fuel crisis in Russia:
The disabling of Russian oil refineries by Ukraine will not increase but decrease global oil prices. Crude oil will physically have nowhere to be processed and will be massively exported. At any price and with any discount — just to get it taken. Because all oil storage facilities are already completely full. Next step: either stopping oil production or dumping it into ditches. Now imagine what will happen if Ukraine disables export terminals. There is oil, but nowhere to put it, and nothing to refine it with.
The quality of Russian fuel will sharply decline, as low-quality gasoline will be “upgraded” using various additives. As a result, engines will begin to fail much faster.
A black market for gasoline will emerge very quickly. Since fuel will primarily go to the Russian military, they will also organize large-scale illegal sales. This will involve enormous sums of money, and no Russian generals will miss the opportunity to profit from it.
Owners of Russian refineries in the European part of the country will not rush to repair them. Repairs must be paid for out of their own pocket, and they must also purchase air defense systems and maintain mobile fire groups. Why rush if tomorrow drones will strike again and destroy everything? Idle refineries will sharply reduce tax revenues to the state budget.
Gasoline will primarily be supplied to Moscow and St. Petersburg, so the lack of fuel will be felt first in the regions. Siberia, the Caucasus, and the Far East may eventually begin refusing to send their fuel. Protest movements will begin there. Rosgvardia units will be deployed there. It should also be noted that to protect Moscow, Valdai, and remaining refineries, air defenses are being massively withdrawn from the front, which will further increase Russian losses.
Due to disruptions in gasoline and diesel supply, problems will arise with harvesting crops and delivering goods. The amount of perishable food in Russian stores will sharply decrease.
The price of any goods includes logistics costs. Rising transportation costs will inevitably lead to rapid inflation. It should also be noted that about 70% of the cost of gasoline consists of taxes.
The most serious problems will be with aviation fuel. There is already a critical shortage. Many regional flights will be canceled. No, Belarus will not help — it does not have enough fuel. It should also be noted that “Pürer” is fulfilling Zelensky’s ultimatum and is already removing its relay stations from the border.
Car owners will start installing locks on their fuel tanks. Fuel theft by neighbors at night will become a widespread phenomenon.
